Managing fragmented croplands for environmental and economic benefits in China.

Cropland fragmentation contributes to low productivity and high abandonment risk. Using spatial statistics on a detailed land use map, we show that 10% of Chinese croplands have no potential to be consolidated for large-scale farming (>10 ha) owing to spatial constraints. These fragmented croplands contribute only 8% of total crop production while using 15% of nitrogen fertilizers, leading to 12% of fertilizer loss in China. Optimizing the cropping structure of fragmented croplands to meet animal food demand in China can increase animal food supply by 19%, equivalent to increasing cropland proportionally. This crop-switching approach would lead to a 10% and 101% reduction in nitrogen and greenhouse gas emissions, respectively, resulting in a net benefit of US$ 7 billion yr-1. If these fragmented croplands were relocated to generate large-scale farming units, livestock, vegetable and fruit production would be increased by 8%, 3% and 14%, respectively, and reactive nitrogen and greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced by 16% and 5%, respectively, resulting in a net benefit of US$ 44 billion yr-1. Both solutions could be used to achieve synergies between food security, economic benefits and environmental protection through increased agricultural productivity, without expanding the overall cropland area.

Managing urban development could halve nitrogen pollution in China.

Halving nitrogen pollution is crucial for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, how to reduce nitrogen pollution from multiple sources remains challenging. Here we show that reactive nitrogen (Nr) pollution could be roughly halved by managed urban development in China by 2050, with NH3, NOx and N2O atmospheric emissions declining by 44%, 30% and 33%, respectively, and Nr to water bodies by 53%. While rural-urban migration increases point-source nitrogen emissions in metropolitan areas, it promotes large-scale farming, reducing rural sewage and agricultural non-point-source pollution, potentially improving national air and water quality. An investment of approximately US$ 61 billion in waste treatment, land consolidation, and livestock relocation yields an overall benefit of US$ 245 billion. This underscores the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of halving Nr pollution through urbanization, contributing significantly to SDG1 (No poverty), SDG2 (Zero hunger), SDG6 (Clean water), SDG12 (Responsible consumption and production), SDG14 (Climate Action), and so on.

The Contribution of Environmental Science to Mental Health Research: A Scoping Review.

Mental health is influenced by multiple complex and interacting genetic, psychological, social, and environmental factors. As such, developing state-of-the-art mental health knowledge requires collaboration across academic disciplines, including environmental science. To assess the current contribution of environmental science to this field, a scoping review of the literature on environmental influences on mental health (including conditions of cognitive development and decline) was conducted. The review protocol was developed in consultation with experts working across mental health and environmental science. The scoping review included 202 English-language papers, published between 2010 and 2020 (prior to the COVID-19 pandemic), on environmental themes that had not already been the subject of recent systematic reviews; 26 reviews on climate change, flooding, air pollution, and urban green space were additionally considered. Studies largely focused on populations in the USA, China, or Europe and involved limited environmental science input. Environmental science research methods are primarily focused on quantitative approaches utilising secondary datasets or field data. Mental health measurement was dominated by the use of self-report psychometric scales. Measures of environmental states or exposures were often lacking in specificity (e.g., limited to the presence or absence of an environmental state). Based on the scoping review findings and our synthesis of the recent reviews, a research agenda for environmental science's future contribution to mental health scholarship is set out. This includes recommendations to expand the geographical scope and broaden the representation of different environmental science areas, improve measurement of environmental exposure, prioritise experimental and longitudinal research designs, and giving greater consideration to variation between and within communities and the mediating pathways by which environment influences mental health. There is also considerable opportunity to increase interdisciplinarity within the field via the integration of conceptual models, the inclusion of mixed methods and qualitative approaches, as well as further consideration of the socio-political context and the environmental states that can help support good mental health. The findings were used to propose a conceptual model to parse contributions and connections between environmental science and mental health to inform future studies.

Climate change unequally affects nitrogen use and losses in global croplands.

Maintaining food production while reducing agricultural nitrogen pollution is a grand challenge under global climate change. Yet, the response of global agricultural nitrogen uses and losses to climate change on the temporal and spatial scales has not been fully characterized. Here, using historical data for 1961-2018 from over 150 countries, we show that global warming leads to small temporal but substantial spatial impacts on cropland nitrogen use and losses. Yield and nitrogen use efficiency increase in 29% and 56% of countries, respectively, whereas they reduce in the remaining countries compared with the situation without global warming in 2018. Precipitation and farm size changes would further intensify the spatial variations of nitrogen use and losses globally, but managing farm size could increase the global cropland nitrogen use efficiency to over 70% by 2100. Our results reveal the importance of reducing global inequalities of agricultural nitrogen use and losses to sustain global agriculture production and reduce agricultural pollution.

Ageing threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China.

Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development1-4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability5-8, which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers' income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer's income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China.

Driving forces of nitrogen use efficiency in Chinese croplands on county scale.

Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE, defined as the fraction of N input harvested as product) is an important indicator to understand nitrogen use and losses in croplands as an element of determining sustainable food production. China, as the country with the largest amount of nitrogen fertilizer use globally, research into NUE consistently finds it to be much lower than that in developed countries. Understanding the driving forces of the underlying causes of this low NUE is thus crucial to improve nitrogen use and reduce losses in China. Here we applied the CHANS model to estimate cropland NUE for over 2800 counties in China for the year 2017. Results showed that in most counties NUE ranged between 20% and 40%, while an NUE >50% was mainly found in Northeastern China, likely as a result of large-scale, modern agriculture operations. The source of N input and crop types significantly affected NUE in our assessment. Nitrogen deposition, straw recycling, and biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) could improve NUE, while chemical nitrogen fertilizer and manure inputs reduce NUE. Grain crops have a much higher NUE compared to vegetables, which are often over-fertilized. Moreover, NUE in Southern China is strongly influenced by natural factors such as temperature and precipitation. Specifically, NUE in the Yangtze River Delta (eastern coastal region of China) is associated with socio-economic factors including GDP and the degree of urbanization, while in North-central China, NUE is mainly determined by nitrogen input sources. These examples illustrate that approaches aiming at improving NUE need to be location-specific with consideration of multiple natural and socioeconomic factors.

Reduced-form and complex ACTM modelling for air quality policy development: A model inter-comparison.

Simulation models can be valuable tools in supporting development of air pollution policy. However, exploration of future scenarios depends on reliable and robust modelling to provide confidence in outcomes which cannot be tested against measurements. Here we focus on the UK Integrated Assessment Model, a fast reduced-form model with a purpose to support policy development with modelling of multiple alternative future scenarios, and the EMEP4UK model which is a complex Eulerian Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model requiring significant computing resources. The EMEP4UK model has been used to model selected core scenarios to compare with UKIAM, and to investigate sensitivity studies such as the interannual variability in response to meteorological differences between years. This model intercomparison addresses total PM2.5, primary PM2.5 and Secondary Inorganic Aerosol concentrations for a baseline of 2018 and selected scenarios for projections to 2040. This work has confirmed the robustness of the UK Integrated Assessment Model for assessing alternative futures through a direct comparison with EMEP4UK. Both models have shown good agreement with measurements, and EMEP4UK shows an ability to replicate past trends. These comparisons highlight how a combination of reduced-form modelling (UKIAM) and complex chemical transport modelling (EMEP4UK) can be effectively used in support of air pollution policy development, informing understanding of projected futures in the context of emerging evidence and uncertainties.

Life-course exposure to air pollution and biological ageing in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to air pollution is associated with a range of diseases. Biomarkers derived from DNA methylation (DNAm) offer potential mechanistic insights into human health differences, connecting disease pathogenesis and biological ageing. However, little is known about sensitive periods during the life course where air pollution might have a stronger impact on DNAm, or whether effects accumulate over time. We examined associations between air pollution exposure across the life course and DNAm-based markers of biological ageing. METHODS: Data were derived from the Scotland-based Lothian Birth Cohort 1936. Participants' residential history was linked to annual levels of fine particle (PM2.5), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) around 1935, 1950, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2001; pollutant concentrations were estimated using the EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport model. Blood samples were obtained between ages of 70 and 80 years, and Horvath DNAmAge, Hannum DNAmAge, DNAmPhenoAge, DNAmGrimAge, and DNAm telomere length (DNAmTL) were computed. We applied the structured life-course modelling approach: least angle regression identified best-fit life-course models for a composite measure of air pollution (air quality index [AQI]), and mixed-effects regression estimated selected models for AQI and single pollutants. RESULTS: We included 525 individuals with 1782 observations. In the total sample, increased air pollution around 1970 was associated with higher epigenetic age (AQI: b = 0.322 year, 95 %CI: 0.088, 0.555) measured with Horvath DNAmAge in late adulthood. We found shorter DNAmTL among males with higher air pollution around 1980 (AQI: b = -0.015 kilobase, 95 %CI: -0.027, -0.004) and among females with higher exposure around 1935 (AQI: b = -0.017 kilobase, 95 %CI: -0.028, -0.006). Findings were more consistent for the pollutants PM2.5, SO2 and NO2. DISCUSSION: We tested the life-course relationship between air pollution and DNAm-based biomarkers. Air pollution around birth and in young-to-middle adulthood is linked to accelerated epigenetic ageing and telomere-associated ageing in later life.

Mitigating the impact of air pollution on dementia and brain health: Setting the policy agenda.

BACKGROUND: Emerging research suggests exposure to high levels of air pollution at critical points in the life-course is detrimental to brain health, including cognitive decline and dementia. Social determinants play a significant role, including socio-economic deprivation, environmental factors and heightened health and social inequalities. Policies have been proposed more generally, but their benefits for brain health have yet to be fully explored. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: Over the course of two years, we worked as a consortium of 20+ academics in a participatory and consensus method to develop the first policy agenda for mitigating air pollution's impact on brain health and dementia, including an umbrella review and engaging 11 stakeholder organisations. RESULTS: We identified three policy domains and 14 priority areas. Research and Funding included: (1) embracing a complexities of place approach that (2) highlights vulnerable populations; (3) details the impact of ambient PM2.5 on brain health, including current and historical high-resolution exposure models; (4) emphasises the importance of indoor air pollution; (5) catalogues the multiple pathways to disease for brain health and dementia, including those most at risk; (6) embraces a life course perspective; and (7) radically rethinks funding. Education and Awareness included: (8) making this unrecognised public health issue known; (9) developing educational products; (10) attaching air pollution and brain health to existing strategies and campaigns; and (11) providing publicly available monitoring, assessment and screening tools. Policy Evaluation included: (12) conducting complex systems evaluation; (13) engaging in co-production; and (14) evaluating air quality policies for their brain health benefits. CONCLUSION: Given the pressing issues of brain health, dementia and air pollution, setting a policy agenda is crucial. Policy needs to be matched by scientific evidence and appropriate guidelines, including bespoke strategies to optimise impact and mitigate unintended consequences. The agenda provided here is the first step toward such a plan.

Ammonia Emissions from Croplands Decrease with Farm Size in China.

Farm size affects nitrogen fertilizer input and agricultural practices, which are key determinants of ammonia (NH3) emissions from croplands. However, the degree to which NH3 emissions are associated with changes in farm size is not well understood yet despite its crucial role in achieving agricultural sustainability in China, where agricultural production is still dominated by smallholder farms. Here we provide a first analysis of the relationship between farm size and NH3 emissions based on 863 000 surveys conducted in 2017 across China. Results show that NH3 emissions (kg ha-1) on average decrease by 0.07% for each 1% increase in average farm size. This change occurs mainly due to a reduction in nitrogen fertilizer use and the introduction of more efficient fertilization practices. The largest reduction in NH3 emissions is found in maize, with less pronounced changes in rice cultivation, and none for wheat production. Overall lower NH3 emissions factors can be observed in the north of China with increasing farm size, especially in the northeast, the opposite pattern was found in the south. National total NH3 emissions could be approximately halved (1.5 Tg) in a scenario favoring a conversion to large-scale farming systems. This substantial reduction potential highlights the potential of such a transition to reduce NH3 emissions, including benefits from a socioeconomic point of view as well as for improving air quality.

Reforming smallholder farms to mitigate agricultural pollution.

China's agriculture is dominated by smallholder farms, which have become major sources of negative environmental impacts including eutrophication, formation of haze, soil acidification and greenhouse gas emissions. To mitigate these environmental impacts, new farming models including family farming, cooperation farming and industrial farming have emerged in recent years. However, whether these new farming practices would improve the economic and environmental performance as compared to the current smallholder farming has yet to be verified on ground level. In this paper, by using pilot farming cases within the watershed of Tai Lake, we found that alternative farming models produced 7% more crop yield, while using 8% less fertilizer, leading to a 28% decrease in pollutant emission per hectare. These alternative farming models have a 17% higher fertilizer use efficiency and 50% higher profit per hectare. Compared to smallholder farming, these alternative farming practices invest 27% more resources into agricultural facilities, including advanced machinery, and have a younger, better educated labor force as a consequence of a larger farm size and more specialization. These input changes substantially increase fertilizer use efficiency and reduce agricultural pollution. Policy arrangements to support and facilitate the uptake of these farming models will further promote the green development and sustainable intensification of agricultural production.

Integrated livestock sector nitrogen pollution abatement measures could generate net benefits for human and ecosystem health in China.

Nearly one quarter of global meat production occurs in China, but a lack of detailed spatial livestock production data hinders ongoing pollution mitigation strategies. Here we generate high-resolution maps of livestock systems in China using over 480,000 farm surveys from 2007 to 2017, finding that China produced more livestock protein with fewer animals and less total pollution impact through better breeding, feeding and manure management in large-scale livestock farms. Hotspots of production can be observed across the North China Plain, Northeastern China and the Sichuan Basin. The Clean Water Act reduced manure nutrient losses to water by one third, but with limited changes to methane and ammonia emissions. Integrated production and consumption abatement measures costing approximately US$6 billion could further reduce livestock pollution by 2050, realizing benefits of up to US$30 billion due to avoided human health and ecosystem costs.

A 12% switch from monogastric to ruminant livestock production can reduce emissions and boost crop production for 525 million people.

Ruminants have lower feed use efficiency than monogastric livestock, and produce higher reactive nitrogen and methane emissions, but can utilize human-inedible biomass through foraging and straw feedstock. Here we conduct a counterfactual analysis, replacing ruminants with monogastric livestock to quantify the changes in nitrogen loss and greenhouse gas emissions globally from a whole life cycle perspective. Switching 12% of global livestock production from monogastric to ruminant livestock could reduce nitrogen emissions by 2% and greenhouse gas emissions by 5% due to land use change and lower demand for cropland areas for ruminant feed. The output from released cropland could feed up to 525 million people worldwide. More ruminant products, in addition to optimized management, would generate overall benefits valued at US$468 billion through reducing adverse impacts on human and ecosystem health, and mitigating climate impacts.

Dry Climate Aggravates Riverine Nitrogen Pollution in Australia by Water Volume Reduction.

Freshwater is a scarce resource, and maintaining water quality is of great importance in dryland Australia. How water quality is affected by the dry climate and socio-economic influences in Australia remains widely unknown. Here, we find that agriculture activity dominates reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions to water bodies. Such emissions not only contribute to deteriorating water quality in Southeastern Australia but also harm marine ecosystems, including the Great Barrier Reef, a World Natural Heritage site. A dry and warm climate reduces the share of Nr emitted directly to water bodies; however, it increases the Nr concentration in surface water due to reduced water volume, leading to a 3-fold higher water Nr concentration compared to major rivers globally, e.g., in the US or China. Business-as-usual socioeconomic development would increase the total Nr emitted to surface water by at least 43% by 2050, while effective mitigation measures could reduce N runoff by about 27%. Advanced agricultural management strategies should be considered to reduce future environmental pressures due to N runoff in Australia.

Decoupling between ammonia emission and crop production in China due to policy interventions.

Cropland ammonia (NH3 ) emission is a critical driver triggering haze pollution. Many agricultural policies were enforced in past four decades to improve nitrogen (N) use efficiency while maintaining crop yield. Inadvertent reductions of NH3 emissions, which may be induced by such policies, are not well evaluated. Here, we quantify the China's cropland-NH3 emission change from 1980 to 2050 and its response to policy interventions, using a data-driven model and a survey-based dataset of the fertilization scheme. Cropland-NH3 emission in China doubled from 1.93 to 4.02 Tg NH3 -N in period 1980-1996, and then decreased to 3.50 Tg NH3 -N in 2017. The prevalence of four agricultural policies may avoid ~3.0 Tg NH3 -N in 2017, mainly located in highly fertilized areas. Optimization of fertilizer management and food consumption could mitigate three-quarters of NH3 emission in 2050 and lower NH3 emission intensity (emission divided by crop production) close to the European Union and the United States. Our findings provide an evidence on the decoupling of cropland-NH3 from crop production in China and suggest the need to achieve cropland-NH3  mitigation while sustaining crop yields in other developing economies.

Nitrogen emission and deposition budget in an agricultural catchment in subtropical central China.

The study of emissions and depositions of atmospheric reactive nitrogen species (Nrs) in a region is important to uncover the sources and sinks of atmospheric Nrs in the region. In this study, atmospheric total Nrs depositions including both wet-only and dry deposition were monitored simultaneously across major land-use types in a 105 km2 catchment called Jinjing River Catchment (JRC) in subtropical central China from 2015 to 2016. Based on activity data and emission factors for the main Nrs emission sources, ammonia (NH3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission inventories for the catchment were also compiled. The estimated total Nrs deposition in JRC was 35.9 kg N ha-1 yr-1, with approximately 49.7 % attributed to reduced compounds (NHx), and 40.5 % attributed to oxidized (NOy). The total Nrs emission rate in JRC was 80.4 kg N ha-1 yr-1, with 61.5 and 18.9 kg N ha-1 yr-1 from NH3 and NOx emissions, respectively. Livestock excretion and fertilization were the two main contributing emission sources for NH3, while vehicle sources contributed the bulk of NOx emissions. The net atmospheric budgets of Nrs in paddy field, forest, and tea field were +3.7, -36.1, and +23.8 kg N ha-1 yr-1, respectively. At the catchment scale, the net atmospheric budget of Nrs was +47.7 kg N ha-1 yr-1, with +43.7 kg N ha-1 yr-1 of NHx and +4.0 kg N ha-1 yr-1 of NOy, indicating that the subtropical catchment was net sources of atmospheric Nrs. Considering that excessive atmospheric Nr emissions and deposition may cause adverse effects on the environment, effects should be conducted to mitigate the Nrs emissions from agriculture and transportation, and increasing the area of forest is good for reducing the net positive budget of atmospheric Nrs in the subtropical catchments in China.

An empirical model to estimate ammonia emission from cropland fertilization in China.

Ammonia (NH3) volatilization is one of the main pathways of nitrogen loss from cropland, resulting not only in economic losses, but also environmental and human health impacts. The magnitude and timing of NH3 emissions from cropland fertilizer application highly depends on agricultural practices, climate and soil factors, which previous studies have typically only considered at coarse spatio-temporal resolution. In this paper, we describe a first highly detailed empirical regression model for ammonia (ERMA) emissions based on 1443 field observations across China. This model is applied at county level by integrating data with unprecedented high spatio-temporal resolution of agricultural practices and climate and soil factors. Results showed that total NH3 emissions from cropland fertilizer application amount to 4.3 Tg NH3 yr-1 in 2017 with an overall NH3 emission factor of 12%. Agricultural production for vegetables, maize and rice are the three largest emitters. Compared to previous studies, more emission hotspots were found in South China and temporally, emission peaks are estimated to occur three months earlier in the year, while the total amount of emissions is estimated to be close to that calculated by previous studies. A second emission peak is identified in October, most likely related to the fertilization of the second crop in autumn. Incorporating these new findings on NH3 emission patterns will enable a better parametrization of models and hence improve the modelling of air quality and subsequent impacts on ecosystems through reactive N deposition.

The Warming Climate Aggravates Atmospheric Nitrogen Pollution in Australia.

Australia is a warm country with well-developed agriculture and a highly urbanized population. How these specific features impact the nitrogen cycle, emissions, and consequently affect environmental and human health is not well understood. Here, we find that the ratio of reactive nitrogen (N r ) losses to air over losses to water in Australia is 1.6 as compared to values less than 1.1 in the USA, the European Union, and China. Australian N r emissions to air increased by more than 70% between 1961 and 2013, from 1.2 Tg N yr-1 to 2.1 Tg N yr-1. Previous emissions were substantially underestimated mainly due to neglecting the warming climate. The estimated health cost from atmospheric N r emissions in Australia is 4.6 billion US dollars per year. Emissions of N r to the environment are closely correlated with economic growth, and reduction of N r losses to air is a priority for sustainable development in Australia.